By Victoria Pengilley, Nandini Dhir, and Middle East Correspondent Matthew Doran
In short:
(ABC-Australia) At least 500 people have been killed as nationwide protests challenging the Iranian regime continue, according to activists.
US President Donald Trump has warned Iranian leaders against using force against demonstrators and said the US stands “ready to help”.
In Australia, hundreds of people have gathered in Sydney, urging Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to condemn the killing of protesters in Iran.
Ongoing nationwide protests in Iran have killed more than 500 people, a rights group says, as Tehran warns of retaliation if US President Donald Trump carries out threats to intervene on behalf of demonstrators.
According to its latest spreadsheet — based on activists inside and outside Iran — the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it had verified the deaths of 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, with more than 10,600 people arrested.
One of the human rights organizations that is trying to piece together a picture of what is happening on the ground is the Europe-based Hengaw.
It has been verifying some of the few videos published on social media amid a near-total communication blackout.
Hengaw has so far been able to identify at least 60 Iranians who have been killed, with women and children among them.
“We have received at least three videos, and two of which we verified, that it is in Kahrizak morgue and warehouse where dozens of bodies seem to be piled in the hallways,” a spokesperson for Hengaw, Arina Moradi, told the ABC.
“We have seen families searching for the bodies of loved ones, and we also talked, we have been able to talk to some eyewitnesses and families of the victims.
“It seems that the scale of violence is much bigger than we expected.”
The US president warned Iranian leaders against using force against demonstrators and said the US stood “ready to help”.
Mr. Trump said he was in contact with Iranian opposition leaders.
He also said, without elaborating, that Iran’s leaders had called him on Saturday wanting to negotiate, and that he might talk to them.
On Sunday, local time, Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel and US bases in the event of US strikes on the country.
The Wall Street Journal, citing multiple unnamed US officials, reported that the US president was set to be briefed on his options for how to intervene in the country on Tuesday.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaking in parliament on Sunday, warned the US against “a miscalculation”.
“Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories [Israel] as well as all US bases and ships will be our legitimate target,” said Mr. Qalibaf, a former commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in a televised interview, said Israel and the US were masterminding destabilization, and that Iran’s enemies had brought in “terrorists … who set mosques on fire … attack banks, and public properties”.
“Families, I ask you: do not allow your young children to join rioters and terrorists who behead people and kill others,” he said, adding that the government was ready to listen to the people and to resolve economic problems.
Hengaw’s Ms Moradi said the communications blackout, now entering its fourth day, was fuelling fears the crackdown on protesters by Iranian security forces was only going to get worse.
“We have seen in the past that whenever they shut down internet, it’s because they want to use, as much as possible, their violence and their method of controlling people using violence,” she said.
Hengaw said in addition to the growing number of dead, there were thousands of Iranian protesters believed to be detained. So far, it had identified about 700 of them.
“The Iranian authorities keep threatening these detainees, and they are making a link between people who were detained in Iran and foreign governments — which in Iran is a big crime, and people will be punished for this kind of thing even by capital punishment.”
Protests in Australia
Hundreds of people have gathered at Sydney’s Town Hall, urging Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to condemn the killing of protesters in Iran.
The protesters are calling for regime change, with some suggesting Iran’s monarchy take the reins of the country, while others are seeking democratic independence.
Tina Kordrostami joined the protest on Sunday afternoon in the CBD.
“We’re here in solidarity of what’s happening in Iran, with all the people in Iran, we want to make sure that their voices are being heard within Sydney. We’ve been fighting for the last 47 years,” she said.
“Many people here, their families in Iran are under attack, it’s a very sad and sensitive time.”
While the rally is peaceful, there is a growing feeling of despair among attendees.
Many protesters have been unable to communicate with their friends and family in Iran over the past 50 hours due to the ongoing internet blackout, and are concerned for their welfare.
Arta Beikzadeh, who was at a protest outside Sydney’s Town Hall on Sunday afternoon, said it had been about three days since she last heard from her sisters and father in Iran.
“There is a complete blackout in Iran; they shut down everything. We are so concerned,” Ms. Beikzadeh said.
“This time, everyone says, ‘Enough is enough.'”
Foreign Minister Penny Wong has issued a joint statement with Canada and the EU condemning the killings and use of violence.
“We strongly condemn the killing of protesters, the use of violence, arbitrary arrests, and intimidation tactics by the Iranian regime against its own people,” the statement read.
But protesters said they wanted to see a stronger response from the Australian government.
Ali Be joined the demonstrations in Sydney’s CBD on Sunday, and said the government’s response was “lacking”.
“We see words of condemnations, but they’re not answering to the calls of the Iranian people … they want the Islamic regime gone in its entirety,” Mr Be said.
He said protesters were calling on the federal government to “cut all ties with the Islamic regime”.
‘Miscalculation can happen’
The scale of the protests in Iran is fuelling speculation as to whether the hardline Islamic regime, which has been in power for almost 47 years, could be about to topple.
But not all analysts are convinced it is at that point just yet.
“The regime is coping with tremendous challenges … maybe the biggest since 1979,” Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, told the ABC.
The former senior commander in the Israeli military’s defense intelligence establishment said there were no signs, at this stage, of the regime’s military wing or senior leadership splintering — despite claims otherwise from the exiled crown prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi.
“We have to remember that this regime has a concrete base of support, 20 to 30 per cent of the country’s population will support [Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei] anyhow,” Mr Citrinowicz said.
“So we have to assume that it would be very hard to topple this regime, this revolutionary regime — actually, I think we’ll see a change within the regime before we see a toppling of this regime.
“And we have also to remember that the opposition is weak. Yes, they have tremendous courage, but they don’t have leadership.”
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Mr. Trump will meet with senior officials on Tuesday to consider what action the US may take against Iran, after repeated pledges to support the protesters if they are attacked by the Iranian regime.
The options on the table include everything from missile strikes to cyber-attacks or further economic sanctions.
“The Iranian regime right now is on high alert; they suspect that something might happen,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.
“So definitely miscalculation can happen, and it will be very hard to find some sort of a sweet spot that will enable Trump to say ‘I helped the demonstrators’ without deteriorating into full-scale war.
“The dilemma in Washington is huge.” ABC/wires