HAGATNA (GUAM PACIFIC DAILY NEWS)—The Chinese government’s efforts to sway Pacific and Micronesian nations using foreign aid have grown, and the rising superpower “will not back down” in the face of competition with the U.S and other nations, according to Professor Denghua Zhang.
Zhang, an expert on Chinese foreign policy and senior fellow at the Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University (ANU), spoke during day two of the virtual “Security and Insecurity in Micronesia” forum hosted by local think tank Pacific Centre for Island Security.
The Pacific and Micronesia will remain of great interest to China because three of the 12 nations with diplomatic ties to Taiwan are in the region, Zhang said.
China’s government does not recognise the independence of island nation Taiwan, which lies just 100 miles off the coast of mainland China and is home to 23 million mostly ethnic Chinese.
The larger nation has pressured countries around the world to follow suit, and Taiwan’s independence is a flashpoint issue for U.S-China tensions in the region.
Zhang on Wednesday noted that out of 14 Pacific nations, Palau and the Republic of the Marshall Islands in Micronesia, and Tuvalu in Polynesia, had ties to Taiwan.
“This is also one of the main reasons why China has been so interested in these small island countries, and in particular, the Micronesia,” he said.
Military interests in the region remain limited—but are likely to grow—he said, but China uses aid and diplomatic means to push other nations away from Taiwan.
China already has economic and foreign aid partnerships with the Federated States of Micronesia, and is looking for opportunities to win over Palau and the Marshalls, he said.
It may look to move in to fill the vacuum left by U.S withdrawal of foreign aid under the new Trump administration, he noted.
The professor noted that China has already been successful in getting the Solomon Islands to end recognition of Taiwan.
Zhang cited reports from the Solomons’ government that noted China was more willing to help with large infrastructure projects, including China’s US$113 million Solomon Islands National Sports Stadium.
Aid to the Pacific is only about 4 percent of China’s foreign aid, but the amount is growing, he noted.
Since 2021, China has expanded footprint for Pacific-China relationships to emergency supplies, climate change, poverty reduction, natural disaster response and agriculture, according to Zhang.
Large infrastructure projects and loans from China have put countries like Tonga in “debt trap” to the tune of US$70 million, Zhang said, but the superpower is also moving towards more so-called “small but beautiful” partnerships with island nations.
The nation has also moved to provide more cooperation to Pacific governments, like police training, training for public officials, or educational scholarships up to the PhD level, he noted.
Whether aid to the Pacific would keep growing remains to be seen, the expert said, but China is expected to at least keep levels steady through the future.
It’s possible that China has “reached its limit” in Micronesia, because of the special relationship that the U.S has with countries in the area, and the U.S “veto” of any security-related projects.
But the nation will stay in the Pacific, he said, noting Chinese President Xi Jinping has signaled that the FSM should be allowed to have a relationship with China without interference.
In terms of economic influence, large Chinese companies often had close ties to Beijing, and could be used to push the nation’s agenda where they did business, Zhang noted.
There are opportunities and challenges to Pacific nations, when they weigh engagement with China, he said, especially given the need for infrastructure and development in the region.
“I think people have different views on this…most of the Pacific Island countries, if they can, they prefer to balance their relationship with both sides, traditional powers and China, so that they can have more support,” he said.
With tensions between the U.S and China growing, and the possibility of war, nations in the Pacific need to take sides, according to Zhang…..PACNEWS