Overview:
Rising tensions from the Iran war are sending shockwaves across East Asia, as reports of U.S. military redeployments from Japan and South Korea spark unease among allies. With fears of a distracted White House and growing regional threats from China and North Korea, leaders in Tokyo and Seoul are scrambling to reassure their populations while navigating mounting pressure from Donald Trump.
By North Asia correspondent Natalie Whiting and Akane Saiki
In short:
(ABC- Australia) There are mounting concerns in the Asia-Pacific that a protracted conflict, and a distracted White House, risks leaving the region exposed.
Reports that the US was moving military assets out of South Korea and Japan have rattled residents there, with one telling the ABC, “We’re sandwiched between China, North Korea and Russia.”
South Korea’s president has tried to reassure the population while Japan’s prime minister is expected to discuss the war during a high-stakes meeting with Donald Trump.
When Donald Trump earlier this week called on several countries to send warships to the Middle East, it sparked protests almost 11,000 kilometres away.
A rally was held outside the US embassy in Seoul, rejecting both the US president’s request and the war itself.
Anti-war activists in South Korea are wary of the impact the conflict could have on the country. And they aren’t alone.
As the Iran war stretches on there are mounting concerns in the Asia-Pacific that a protracted conflict, and a distracted White House, could threaten peace in the region.
Iran war live updates: For the latest news on the Middle East crisis, read our blog.
Reports recently emerged that the United States was moving defence assets it had stationed in South Korea and Japan to the Middle East to aid its war effort, which prompted concerns on two fronts.
The US presence in the region is intended to deter military flexing from North Korea and China, prompting fears a redeployment could be destabilising.
Some residents in South Korea and Japan have also questioned just how involved their governments could become in the Iran war. These concerns were intensified by the recent, short-lived, request to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung has sought to reassure the public the country can still deter North Korea, even if the US shifts assets and weaponry.
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will need to walk the diplomatic tightrope in person, when she visits Mr Trump at the White House this week.
US marines, ships, and missile defence systems head west
Throughout the conflict there have been numerous reports, and some photos, detailing the apparent redeployment of US assets from East Asia to the Middle East.
Reports have said parts of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot missile defence systems are being moved out of South Korea.
Just days after Mr Lee tried to reassure the public, North Korea fired 10 ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan, seemingly in response to annual military exercises being conducted by South Korea and the United States on the peninsula.
Last week, at a protest in Seoul opposing the military drills, Lee Hong-Jung was among those flagging their fears.
“With the war involving Iran ongoing and US forces-Korea assets reportedly heading toward the Middle East, US bases in South Korea could become potential targets at any time,” he said.
In Japan, the head of the country’s main opposition party spoke out in parliament about reports two US destroyers based there were being redeployed.
“Japan has not permitted the stationing of US forces so they can sortie from those bases to fire missiles towards the Middle East,” Junya Ogawa said, adding that they should be ensuring Japan’s security and broader peace in the region.
There are further reports that Washington is also moving 2,500 marines from Japan.
Tempers flared at the protest in Seoul following Mr Trump’s request to several countries, including South Korea and Japan, to send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and allow the passage of oil.
“I was outraged to hear that he had asked his allies, specifically singling out South Korea, to send troops to Iran, and I could no longer remain silent,” one participant, Jeong Young-Lee, said.
While many nations gave a definitive “no” to the request for ships, both Japan and South Korea were more circumspect — and seemingly less inclined to aggravate the US leader.
Both cited potential domestic legal issues in considering the request. It didn’t prevent them from being included in a follow-up social media lashing from Mr Trump seemingly retracting the appeal and saying “we no longer ‘need’ or desire” the assistance.
Ms Takaichi will likely face more pressure on the issue, and the potential for more requests for help, when she meets with Mr Trump in Washington on Thursday.
It may include a request for Japan to supply defensive missiles, as American stocks become diminished.
‘We’re sandwiched’: Japan weighs legalities of any assistance
Like many residents in Japan, 70-year-old Ikeda san has already felt some effects of the war: at the petrol pump, and when her son’s flight home from the United Kingdom was delayed in the international travel chaos that followed the first strikes.
She wants to see Japan limit any further local fallout.
“Everyone’s against [Japan becoming involved], I think,” she said.
“So, I don’t think Japan will be able [to provide military support like missiles].”
The country’s pacifist constitution has reassured many the country won’t become involved, despite the ambiguities that exist within it.
Fujishita san, 77, believes those legalities will prevent Japan’s involvement, but he concedes the law could be changed, amid debate about the effectiveness of the country’s self-defence force.
“We’re sandwiched between China, North Korea and Russia,” he explained.
“It’s a situation where anything could happen at any time.”
Hidenari Kato also sees the complexity in Japan’s situation.
“Japan can’t exactly say we want to participate. But then again, is it not enough simply to say, ‘We are against the war’? I think that’s where the political difficulty lies.”
His friend Tomoaki Ogura is strongly opposed to war, but acknowledged there are “relations with the US to consider”.
“I hope she can manage it so that even if we provide support or help, it wouldn’t affect Japan,” he said.
A high-stakes meeting
The meeting between Ms Takaichi and Mr Trump was already slated to be high stakes, before the Iran war, coming on a backdrop of heightened tensions between Japan and China.
Ms Takaichi has said she plans to have “frank” discussions with Mr Trump about the war and potential diplomatic solutions.
Despite being a US ally, Japan has maintained friendly relations with Iran in the past, as it is heavily dependent on the Middle East for oil.
Just days before the White House meeting, Japan’s foreign minister held a call with his Iranian counterpart. His office said he raised concerns about attacks on neighbouring countries and the safety of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe once acted as diplomatic intermediary between America and Iran, but Mr Trump may stick to requests of military support.
Ms Takaichi has managed to forge a close relationship with Mr Trump following their first meeting last year.
Since then, she has had a landslide election victory, giving her a strong political mandate.
But the Iran war has shifted things, and she will likely be left balancing American demands against the legal and political sensitivities at home.
Part of Ms Takaichi’s recent political success has been linked to the strong line she is seen to have taken against China, but her comments about a potential response from Japan if there was an attack on Taiwan have drawn Beijing’s ire.
Analysts believe that is the issue she would prefer to focus on in the meeting.
China has discouraged tourism to Japan and restricted exports to several Japanese entities linked to defence industries, saying it was to combat the country’s “remilitarisation”.
Beijing also recently restricted exports of its rare earths, another issue Japan and the United States are expected to discuss.
While one superpower warns against Japan’s “remilitarisation”, the other is encouraging a defence build-up.
Japan may well find itself the latest middle power, caught in the middle.