PORT VILA, 28 OCTOBER 2019 (VANUATU DAILY POST) —The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) has announced that Vanuatu will expect at least two-three named tropical cyclones this cyclone season from November 2019 to April 2020.

On average, at least 2-3 cyclones hit Vanuatu every year. The cyclone risks for Vanuatu this season in contrast to all tropical cyclone seasons is “average risk”.

VMGD predicted the cyclones will pass in the country’s tropical cyclone area of responsibility at longitude 160° to 175° East and Latitude 10° to 23°South.

All communities should prepare and take all necessary precautions and follow forecast updates provided by VMGD.

VMGD Manager of Climate Division, Allan Rarai said even though tropical cyclone activity is expected to be average risk this season, potentially at least one cyclone may reach category 3-4 status.

“This historical analysis of analogue cyclone seasons identical to the upcoming cyclone season suggest occurrence of a Category 5 is low,” said Rarai.

“However, the occurrence of those types of storm systems have occurred in the past and cannot be ruled out.”

Rarai made it clear the peak tropical cyclone season for Vanuatu is usually from January to March.

“Nevertheless, with the changing climate, Vanuatu has experienced cyclones forming outside this period, for instance — TC Liua in September 2018 and TC Donna in May 2017.

“All communities should remain vigilant and adhere to official advisories and warnings provided by VMGD during the upcoming tropical cyclone season.”

VMGD will continue to monitor the evolution of the climate system, if El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions change over the coming months, it will be updated in the tropical cyclone outlook. (PACNEWS)