Overview:
Rising airfares and shrinking flight options are forcing Australians to rethink travel plans, as global conflicts and fuel shortages disrupt aviation routes. From postponed family visits to uncertain holiday plans, travellers are facing tough choices amid soaring costs and limited availability.
By Iris Zhao, Lachlan Bennett and Angelica Silva
(ABC-Australia) Following an unexpected surgery, Rose recently attempted to reschedule a family visit to China for herself and her son.
She was shocked by what she was asked to pay.
The Melbourne mum, who doesn’t want to use her real name for privacy reasons, originally bought round-trip connecting flights about a month ago for $500 each.
But when she contacted China Southern Airlines along with Trip.com about rescheduling, the price had quadrupled.
“I found out that the price had skyrocketed to over $2,000 for one person,” she told the ABC.
Rose said that with a rescheduling fee of more than $200 added to the flights, it became impossible for her to re-book for a later date after her recovery period.
She now feels like she has to fly, despite still being in pain, otherwise she risks not being able to visit her family in China for a long time.
Rose’s workplace requires annual leave to be booked months in advance, which means if she cancels the trip, she would lose both the money and the leave hours.
“With the rising fuel price and inflation, I don’t know when I’ll be able to save enough money and time off to go back [if I cancel the trip],” she said.
“My son would also be super disappointed.
“I’ll just have to grit my teeth and go back, though I don’t even know if my body will be able to handle the trip.”
The conflict in the Middle East has caused chaos across some of the world’s busiest aviation regions, with thousands of flights cancelled globally since the conflict began.
Middle Eastern carriers are now slashing their fares, with Sydney-to-London flights for next month being sold for as little as $1,400 return, while some Asian and American airlines are charging more than three times that for the same period.
In Rose’s case, changing the date of a flight would incur higher fare differences due to factors such as seat availability, along with the terms and conditions attached to the original price paid, said Chrystal Zhang, an associate professor of aviation at RMIT University.
“With the current situation, Chinese carriers, like other airlines, are adjusting their capacity in response to the ‘market demand’ and dealing with the spiking fuel price,” Professor Zhang told the ABC.
“Recently, Chinese carriers have cancelled quite a few operations between China and Australia, and shifted some of the capacities to other routes, which they predict have a higher demand,” she said.
“This results in a reduced capacity between China and Australia, which is likely to result in fare increases, regardless.”
More on fuel prices
As the conflict drags on, some travellers are even starting to worry about Christmas.
Town planner Eric Smith and his partner, Warren, met in the United Kingdom and now live in Tasmania.
They were hoping to spend their first Christmas together in the UK with Warren’s family, but that’s now in doubt.
“I’m optimistic we’ll be able to afford it, but Warren has basically given up on the idea because ticket prices are so much more expensive,” Mr Smith said.
“I would like to keep planning for it,” he said.
“I’ve been saving my leave.”
In the meantime, Mr Smith has been investigating ways to ensure their Christmas dreams can still become a reality.
They are considering cutting back on other travel expenses, such as car hire, and exploring alternative airlines in case carriers like the Dubai-based Emirates cancel flights.
“We are reconsidering the need to travel, but I’m hoping we go,” he said.
Europe could experience major flight disruptions within weeks as global energy officials warn the continent has “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left”, which could lead to further price hikes and cancellations for Australian travellers.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said supplies could reach a critical level as early as June unless it could replace shipments cut off from the Middle East, according to the Associated Press (AP).
The warning adds to uncertainty for many Australians heading to Europe after weeks of flight cancellations linked to the war.
War not so good for business
The uncertainty surrounding the conflict is weighing on the minds of holiday-makers and businesses alike.
Alejandro Restrepo, an SEO (search engine optimisation) agency manager, needs to travel to Europe in July to meet colleagues from across the UK and the United States.
“I’m confident it will happen, but we keep in mind that things can change at any time,” he said.
“There’s always a possibility that we might have to cancel the whole thing.”
Mr Restrepo said he wanted certainty about both international and domestic travel.
“We do fly between Melbourne and Sydney quite often at work, and we’ve seen a few pricing changes, internal delays on flights, but nothing too crazy yet,” he said.
“We just want to know how things are going to develop and how travel-related costs are going to be impacted.”
Australian airlines are halting entire routes and merging slots to ensure planes are full, with Virgin telling the ASX on Wednesday that it would slightly reduce flights by 1 per cent in the three months to June 30.
It follows a similar update by Australia’s biggest airline, with Qantas facing up to $800 million in extra fuel costs in the coming months.
For those who had their sights set on an overseas trip this year, Professor Zhang emphasised “planning is the key”.
“You should book early if you plan to travel during the holiday season, as prices will generally be higher than in the non-holiday season,” she said.