Overview:
Palau is heading into potentially very dry months, with forecasters giving the country a very high chance of unusually low rainfall from September through November as a strong El Niño continues to strengthen.
By: L.N. Reklai
KOROR, Palau (August 13, 2026) – Palau is facing a high risk of unusually dry conditions beginning in September, with a strong El Niño expected to intensify and persist into early 2027, according to the latest Early Action Rainfall Watch.
The rainfall outlook gives Palau a very high chance of very dry conditions in September and during the September-November period, signaling a potentially significant decline in rainfall across the country.
Very dry conditions are defined as rainfall levels that would place a month among roughly the 20 driest out of 100 comparable months.
The outlook comes as El Niño becomes firmly established across the tropical Pacific. Both oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with a strong El Niño, and climate models indicate continued warming in the tropical Pacific in the coming months, with conditions expected to peak toward the end of the year.
The event is expected to continue into early 2027, according to the rainfall watch.
Current atmospheric conditions also support the El Niño pattern, with trade winds weaker than normal or reversed across parts of the western tropical Pacific, increased cloudiness near the International Date Line and reduced cloudiness over the Maritime Continent.
The National Weather Service’s accompanying public information flyer describes the event as a “Strong to Very Strong El Niño” and urges communities to prepare for prolonged dry periods, heat extremes, water shortages, increased wildfire risks and stress on agriculture and fisheries. The flyer also warns of coral bleaching and possible food security concerns.
The rainfall outlook comes despite recent wet conditions in parts of Palau.
At the six-month timescale, most of Palau’s main islands recorded a very wet rainfall status, while the southwest islands were classified as very dry. At the three-month timescale, portions of western Babeldaob remained very wet, while the southwest islands continued to experience very dry conditions.
The southwest islands also recorded very dry conditions over the most recent one-month period.
The latest satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over Yap and Palau and their coastal waters, with patchy clouds and showers farther south of the islands.
Weather officials emphasize that El Niño is only one of several factors affecting seasonal weather and climate, and that every El Niño event differs in strength and impacts.
Still, the expected persistence and strength of the current event make early preparation important.
The public information flyer encourages residents and sectors to prepare and contact relevant agencies for guidance, particularly as water resources could come under increasing pressure during prolonged dry periods.
Communities, farmers, fishers and other sectors are encouraged to monitor weather updates and conserve water as Palau heads into the drier months.