WASHINGTON (CHATHAM HOUSE) —Alongside the market turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy, a parallel set of impacts are emerging in global security. The full effects may only be seen over time, but U.S tariffs threaten to produce outcomes that run contrary to Washington’s security objectives.
President Donald Trump assumes that he can afford to be overly assertive, even cavalier in his policies because other countries simply cannot afford to turn their backs on the U.S. But his constantly shifting tariff announcements have placed that belief under more stress than ever before. As trade with the U.S becomes more complex, unpredictable and expensive, some countries – including key U.S partners – may see additional incentives to rethink the extent of their security dependence on Washington.
The effects on international security are playing out differently among European and Asian allies, two regions that have relied on US security commitments for eight decades. But both are re-examining how committed this U.S administration is to their needs.
Europe
Europeans were jittery about President Trump’s commitment to their security before his election. His administration’s policies on NATO and the war in Ukraine increased their concerns. The U.S pursuit of peace talks with Russia, without European representation, has driven home the desire of the U.S to disengage from its commitments on the continent as rapidly as possible.
That has forced Europe’s leaders to take Trump’s 2024 campaign message seriously: it is now widely accepted that European governments must increase their defence budgets and assume the full burden of securing their continent.
That might be seen as a foreign policy triumph for President Trump: but the tariffs have now added a fresh economic rationale for an approach that decouples some European security dependencies from Washington.
Many European governments have historically sourced weapons systems from the U.S, benefitting from its cutting-edge technology and economies of scale. But this could now change. Portugal, Canada and other U.S allies are now reconsidering purchases of the US-built F35 aircraft.
Tariffs will likely cause the cost of U.S defence products to rise, if for no other reason that U.S defence companies will pay more to procure essential components from global markets.
And European governments are already taking a ‘buy European’ approach to procurement: a new €150 billion(US$170 billion) EU rearmament fund could exclude U.S companies from competing for contracts.
A reduction of defence exports to Europe was certainly not an outcome the Trump administration desired. Neither was the establishment of a European defence industry that might one day compete more effectively with the U.S on sales to other regions. This would go far beyond Trump’s current aim of Europe paying more for its own defence.
However much the US might object to being excluded from European procurement, the recent tariff turbulence can only support the rationale for Europe boosting investment in its own defence industrial base, which has struggled to make up for shortages caused by the delivery of military equipment to Ukraine.
Asia and the Pacific
In Asia the impact of tariffs uncertainty will be felt differently. U.S security partners in Asia and the Pacific are not involved in an active regional armed conflict like Ukraine. And there is no multi-party security pact comparable to NATO whose existence is threatened in the same way by the Trump administration. Instead, a series of individual security relationships exist between the U.S and Asia-Pacific states.
The Trump administration is also more invested in the region. Whereas confronting Russian forces in Europe is completely off the table for the .US, deterring China in the Pacific is a clear strategic priority.
But this will not be sufficient to entirely calm nerves among regional allies. As in Europe, there is increasing belief that the U.S cannot be relied upon as a security partner in the same way as before.
Asia-Pacific countries are confronted by a deteriorating regional security environment, with China rapidly building up its military while cooperating with Russia and North Korea. And potential conflict flashpoints are clearly identifiable, from Taiwan to the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea. Defence budgets are expanding as a result.
Japan, for example, is in the process of massively boosting its historically low levels of defence spending. South Korea is aiming for a 3.6 percent rise in defence budget in 2025. And Australia’s new national defence strategy calls for an uplift in spending to 2.3 percent of GDP by 2033-34.
Meanwhile the Trump administration has called on Taiwan to spend 10 per cent of its GDP on defence, a figure Taipei says it cannot afford…..PACNEWS