Overview:
As the conflict in Iran exposes the limits and endurance of U.S. military power, defense strategy in the Pacific is undergoing a rapid shift. Military analyst Jennifer Kavanagh examines how vulnerabilities in first island chain bases are making the second island chain—including Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands—increasingly vital to global security strategy, bringing both economic opportunities and risks to the region.
HAGATNA, 27 OCTOBER 2026 (GUAM PACIFIC DAILY NEWS) — A senior military analyst says the Iran War reveals much about how the U.S conducts warfare today, especially how a future conflict in the Pacific would play out.
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Washington, D.C-based foreign policy think tank Defence Priorities, said U.S foreign policy today is “in a period of rapid change and flux” and that dynamic has implications on global security.
One of the biggest developments in U.S foreign policy is its war with Iran.
Kavanagh said the country’s performance over the past eight months has exposed the limits of U.S military power and the armed forces’ vulnerabilities.
“It certainly remains the most powerful military in the world, but we’ve seen that the U.S military lacks endurance,” she said.
Over the course of the Iran conflict so far, the military is running low or has run out of key munitions. These include most of its hypersonic and interceptor missiles, Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Air Defence munitions, and Tomahawk and other precision weapons. Kavanagh added this is against the backdrop of a conflict against a “pretty weak” adversary.
Generally, the way U.S wages wars depends on its network of bases that allows it to project power globally, she said. Those bases aren’t survivable.
In the Iran war, U.S bases in the Middle East were struck to the point where they no longer became assets to U.S military power, Kavanagh Said. Instead, they were liabilities, something that has implications to the first island chain.
The first island chain is a Cold War-era line drawn up by American war planners to contain China. It includes the major Pacific islands from Malaysia to Japan.
“Realistically, we have to look at those bases now as probably not usable in a conflict,” Kavanagh said.
“The argument that you would use these bases to disperse forces, to me, is a fantasy in the current reality. How can you disperse forces on bases that you can’t defend?”
This means the second island chain is becoming increasingly important in the U.S military strategy in the region.
Kavanaugh has previously argued pulling back U.S forces from the first island chain to the second.
The second island chain cuts through Micronesia and includes Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
Bases here, though not invincible to Chinese missiles, are “certainly more defensible,” according to Kavanagh.
The Pentagon’s investment into defence infrastructure in the second island chain is already apparent. That investment, she said, could result in more local jobs, but also increased stress on the local population and damage to the environment.
And if a conflict were to start, she said the U.S has a recent track record of not being a reliable partner.
“The United States will of course, always defend its bases. That doesn’t mean that it will also defend civilian infrastructure,” Kavanagh said.
“Having more U.S military presence, having greater focus on the second island chain, is a mixed picture for the countries in this region.”
Kavanagh said the growing U.S-China relationship, at least at the political level, has been characterized by both nations’ efforts towards de-escalation.
However, the military and operational competition between the two nations continues and this includes increasing military pressure “at quite a furious pace.”
This is seen in the increase of U.S missile platforms in the first island chain, increasing logistical cooperation and alliances between Japan and Taiwan, the A.I race, and export controls with China, according to Kavanagh.
“While we have this political détente at one level, at the operational level, the security competition between the two sides continues even if no one wants to talk about it,” she said.
For the second island chain in Micronesia, Kavanagh said the situation is “quite precarious”
“On the one hand de-escalation is certainly welcome, certainly a less tense regional environment is good, but it has to be seen as something that’s possibly temporary,” she said.
There is a high risk for it to reverse once the Trump administration ends, resulting in a return to a more intense competition if the easing of political tensions fails.
Kavanagh said the U.S national debt is about US$40 trillion, that is 100 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Interest on that debt is over US$1 trillion annually.
“This is completely unsustainable fiscally for the United States,” she said. “It’s a huge economic risk and it will have longer-term implication on U.S spending.”
For the U.S’s to keep “printing money” to fund defence projects and military activities, is misguided in her opinion. On top of that, there’s no political appetite for the legislation required to address the national debt like tax increases or cuts to entitlement benefits.
“We’re kind of stuck in this place where we’re not actually addressing what is a huge risk for U.S national security,” she said. More money is the problem the Department of Defence is facing.
The national debt will eventually strain U.S military activity, making it harder to keep up its global presence, meaning that the U.S. will have to “retrench” in ways that it doesn’t like.
That equates to giving up commitments because they aren’t fiscally sustainable or cutting funding for things like social services or non-military infrastructure investment.
“I think this is a real risk factor, and the risks are not just military for countries along the second island chain,” Kavanagh said…. PACNEWS