Warming beyond 1.5 threatens Palau’s coastal communities, future generations

By Elilai Rengiil

MELEKEOK, Palau (Nov. 4, 2026) – Palau must put safeguards in place for future generations as global warming threatens to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, National Climate Change Coordinator Xavier Erbai Matsutaro said ahead of COP31.

“We need to start planning ahead, for our future generations. We need to put in support systems and safeguards, so they can be better prepared. That is the reality,” he said.

In an interview with Palau’s Office of Climate Change, Matsutaro warned that exceeding the threshold would bring environmental changes beyond recorded experience, with growing risks for coastal communities already facing flooding.

“The reason is when you go over 1.5, you’re going into environmental changes that we wouldn’t have seen in record history. So, you’re literally changing the planet. It might very well be a very different planet for our future generations,” he said.

Communities near mangroves, including those in Ngiwal, Ngaraard and Melekeok, are among the most affected. Climate officials said flooding increased in these communities during the La Niña event they identified as running from September 2024 to January 2026.

Matsutaro warned that warming beyond 1.5 degrees would intensify the effects of El Niño and La Niña, bringing stronger and more frequent impacts.

Climate Change Finance Coordinator Joe Aitaro said Palau was not simply on the frontlines of climate change.

“We are living in it now,” he said. “Can we afford life after 1.5?”

Citing a United Nations Environment Programme report warning that temperatures would exceed the threshold, Matsutaro asked: “What will our children inherit?”

Keeping the 1.5-degree goal alive remains the overarching objective for Palau’s climate team and its Pacific counterparts, even as they prepare for the consequences of exceeding it.

“In the meantime, we push as hard as we can,” Matsutaro said.

Palau’s negotiators identified keeping the 1.5 goal alive and securing accessible, programmatic climate finance as their top priorities. That means pushing to prevent further warming while securing easier to access, long-term funding to address impacts already being felt.

“Most climate financing for projects are for 2-3 years, and that’s to deal with the climate impacts at 1.5. If we are set to exceed 1.5, we will need long-term financing, scaling up the finance for terms of ten years,” Matsutaro remarked.

“Not just finance, supporting implementation, strengthening capacity and capabilities in our communities are also necessary to deal with these impacts.”

Negotiations such as those at COP31 help enable funding to reach vulnerable communities through international climate and environmental finance mechanisms, including the Green Climate Fund.

One example of climate-related support is the “Developing an enabling environment for low emission and climate smart and resilient agriculture in Palau” project, which seeks to improve food security while helping agriculture withstand drought and saltwater intrusion.

Palau’s priorities align with four broader Pacific objectives: keeping the 1.5-degree threshold alive, amplifying Pacific voices, elevating the ocean-climate connection, and securing accessible, scaled-up climate finance.

Aitaro criticized developed countries’ lack of action more than a decade after the Paris Agreement, which included the goal of pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The developed countries did not meet their obligations. They failed us,” he said.

COP31, the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference of Parties, will take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026. Türkiye will host the conference, with Australia leading the negotiations. Palau’s delegation will comprise around 20 government officials and consultants.