The Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) reported a recent El Niño event with unusual impacts across the region. While some islands experienced above-average rainfall and flooding, others faced drought conditions.
The forum, held this week in Sigatoka, Fiji, provided a platform for climate experts and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to share information and prepare for potential future events.
El Niño’s Patchy Impact
The 2023-24 El Niño, declared in early April, differed from past events. Warmer ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, a hallmark of El Niño, were accompanied by La Niña-like atmospheric conditions in the western Pacific. This unique combination resulted in a mixed bag of impacts.
Islands like Kiribati saw much-needed above-average rainfall, recovering from previous droughts. However, other areas, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas and parts of Micronesia, faced drought and water shortages. The Federated States of Micronesia even declared a state of emergency due to water scarcity and disease outbreaks.
Positive Effects and Looking Ahead
El Niño wasn’t all negative. Tonga, for instance, reported increased vanilla production due to drier conditions.
The forum also highlighted the importance of learning from this atypical El Niño. NMHS representatives noted the event’s unusual impacts and will use this knowledge to prepare for future occurrences, especially with a changing climate.
Potential La Niña on the Horizon
While the Pacific transitions to neutral conditions in the coming months (April-June), forecasters predict a possible La Niña developing later in 2024, potentially arriving as early as July or August. However, PICOF-14 participants acknowledged some uncertainty in this prediction.
Pacific communities will continue to receive updated information through the Ocean and Climate Outlook Forum (OCOF), where NMHS experts will discuss climate drivers and outlooks on a monthly basis. PICOF, along with OCOF, plays a crucial role in informing Pacific communities and preparing them for potential climate extremes.
Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP)